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Oil prices rise on OPEC and Russia’s deal to cut production (en/fr)

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According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said Wednesday that it would cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day from 33.6 million barrels and said it expects producers from outside the group, including Russia, to join with additional cuts totaling 600,000 barrels a day. On Thursday, 12/1, Azerbaijan said it was also willing to engage in talks on cuts while Indonesia suspended its membership. 

This is the first time that OPEC has agreed its oil output cuts since 2008 after Saudi Arabia accepted “a big hit” on its production and dropped its demand on arch-rival Iran to slash output, pushing up crude prices by around 10 percent.

For Oil Price.com, Saudi Arabia will account for almost half of the agreed cuts, reducing output by nearly 0.5 mb/d, which will take overall production down close to 10.0 mb/d. Iran’s figures are a bit confusing, given that the numbers don’t add up on the agreement text that OPEC published. Iran wanted its output to climb to a pre-sanctions level of at least 4 mb/d, while Saudi Arabia insisted on a freeze at 3.7 mb/d. Algeria’s energy minister offered a middle ground – roughly 3.8 mb/d. Despite the discrepancy in the figures published by OPEC on Wednesday, it appears that Iran will be allowed to boost production by another 90,000 barrels per day to 3.8 mb/d, with both Iran and Saudi Arabia offering some concessions.

Non-OPEC Russia will join output cuts for the first time in 15 years to help the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries prop up oil prices.Reuters reported also that analysts said the cuts would leave the field open for other producers, especially U.S. shale drillers.

Iran was allowed to boost production slightly from its October level – a victory for Tehran, which has long argued it needs to regain market share lost under Western sanctions.

OPEC produces a third of global oil, or around 33.6 million barrels per day, and under the Wednesday deal it would reduce output by around 1.2 million bpd from January 2017.

Saudi Arabia will take the lion’s share of cuts by reducing output by almost 0.5 million bpd to 10.06 million bpd. Its Gulf OPEC allies – the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar – would cut by a total 0.3 million bpd. Moreover, Saudi Arabia faces the unenviable tasks of policing cartel members and keeping crude prices within a range that will relieve pressure on oil-producing countries’ economies, but which will dissuade non-OPEC producers from increasing output.

Iraq, which had insisted on higher output quotas to fund its fight against Islamic State militants, unexpectedly agreed to reduce production – by 0.2 million bpd.

CNBC  reports that  OPEC now has a difficult needle to thread as oil rigs began popping up in U.S. oil fields when prices approached $50 a barrel, and analysts believe high-cost producers outside OPEC will further ramp up production if crude prices rise above $55 a barrel. Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note earlier this week that the “price risk is likely skewed to the upside heading into Wednesday,” adding that “even in the absence of a cut, we expect the oil market to move into deficit by the second half of 2017.”

Crude oil prices steadied around $50 a barrel on Thursday, holding onto big gains made after OPEC and Russia agreed to restrict production, even as analysts warned other producers were likely to top up supply.

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Credit: Opec.org
crude oil prices december 2017
Crude Oil Trends :Nasdaq

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  • PÉTROLE : LES PRIX S’ENVOLENT APRÈS L’ACCORD DE L’OPEP

Même si il y en a encore des désaccords au sein du Cartel, les 14 pays membres de l’Opep y compris la Russie, un pays qui ne fait pas partie de l’OPEP, se sont entendus sur la manière de reduire leur production à 32,5 millions de barils par jour (Mb/j), dans le bas de la fourchette annoncée à Alger en septembre. C’est la première fois depuis huit ans que l’organisation parvient à un accord de réduction pour soutenir les cours. Aujourd’hui, l’Azerbaïdjan a déclaré qu’il allait aussi réduire sa production  tandis que l’Indonésie a suspendu son adhésion au sein du Cartel.

Selon le Monde, L’Iran a finalement obtenu des Saoudiens – pourtant en conflit avec Téhéran sur la Syrie et le Yémen – le droit de produire jusqu’à un plafond de 3,8 millions de barils par jour. Comme convenu, deux pays ont été exemptés de l’effort : la Libye, ébranlée depuis cinq ans par une sanglante guerre civile, et le Nigeria, en butte à des attaques de rebelles sur ses installations pétrolières du delta du Niger. L’Indonésie, qui importe plus de brut qu’elle n’en exporte, a suspendu sa participation au cartel.

L’Iran entend abaisser son niveau de 90 000 barils par jour (jusqu’à 3,8 millions), l’Irak a consenti à réduire sa production pétrolière de 200 000 barils par jour, l’Angola d’entre 4 et 5%, le Koweït de 130 000 barils par jour, les Émirats arabes unis de 139 000 barils/jour (jusqu’à 2,8 millions). Les niveaux de production de pétrole en Libye et au Nigéria n’ont pas été pris en considération par l’OPEP.

Par la suite, la réaction des marchés a été immédiate. Sur fond de décision de l’OPEP, les cours du brut se sont déjà envolés de 9 %. Le baril de brent, principale référence du marché mondial, a bondi, de 43,40 dollars à l’ouverture, à 50 dollars dès les premières annonces parvenues de Vienne en début d’après-midi. Ce niveau n’avait pas été atteint depuis la fin octobre. C’est surtout nettement supérieur au point bas de fin janvier, où il était tombé à 27 dollars.

L’accord marque un assouplissement notable de la position de l ‘Arabie saoudite à l’égard de l’Iran . Alors que le royaume wahhabite a lui-même accepté de réduire sa propre production de 10,5 à 10 Mb/j, il a aussi consenti à ce que celle de l’Iran soit portée à 3,8 Mb/j.

  • Sources: Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Zerohedge, Reuters, OilPrice.com, OPEC.org, CNBC, Bloomberg, le Monde.fr, Les Echos.fr, Sputnik France, Nasdaq.
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